CoinShares says quantum computers remain decades away from threatening Bitcoin security, with limited exposure, strong cryptography, and minimal market impact.
Quantum computing often appears in headlines as a major danger to Bitcoin. There have been numerous reports that strong quantum machines could destroy the safety of Bitcoin. However, detailed research shows a more relaxed and realistic picture.
According to CoinShares, the threat that quantum computing poses to Bitcoin is manageable. Importantly, it is not an immediate crisis to the network or markets.
Bitcoin has experienced a lot of technical fears in the past. From the debate over scaling to bans against mining, the predictions of collapse have come up repeatedly. Yet, Bitcoin is still securely in operation.
Similarly, quantum computing is a long-term engineering problem and not an imminent threat. Experts agree that emerging technology is not capable of penetrating the fundamental protection provided to Bitcoin.
Is Quantum Computing the End of Bitcoin?
Many people ask if quantum computing will completely end Bitcoin. This concern seems to spread in times of high volatility. However, quantum computers do not immediately destroy all of cryptography. Instead, they impact particular algorithms under very strict conditions. These risks are limited by Bitcoin’s layered security design.
According to CoinShares, cryptographic systems of Bitcoin remain strong today. Quantum computers that can attack Bitcoin are not yet available. Therefore, the claims of imminent collapse are technically without support. Bitcoin has time to look on, prepare and upgrade to what it needs.
Bitcoin vs the Quantum Computer Threat
The project of cryptocurrency Bitcoin is based on the use of cryptography for protecting transactions and ownership. This involves the use of digital signatures and hashing algorithms. Quantum computing raises algorithms that might compromise certain methods of cryptography. However, weakening is not the instant failure of the system.
Bitcoin includes several security layers, worked together. Especially when one layer is weakened, others are intact. As a result, any potential quantum impact would occur slowly. This structure provides developers and users with time to respond.
Is Bitcoin Vulnerable to Quantum Computing?
CoinShares explains that not all Bitcoin is subject to the same amount of exposure. About 1.6 million BTC are stored in older Pay-to-Public-Key addresses. This accounts for about 8% of the total supply of Bitcoin. These addresses expose public keys, and as such are theoretically susceptible to future attacks using quantum computing.
However, exposure does not entail practical risk. It is estimated that there are only 10,200 BTC in UTXOs large enough to impact markets in the event they’re stolen. The rest of the exposed bitcoin is sitting in small amounts. Cracking them all would be very expensive and very slow.
The state of Quantum Computing today
Quantum computers today are still in the experimental and limited stages. The largest public machines are those where there are a little over 100 qubits. For example, Google’s Willow quantum computer is made of 105 qubits. Such systems also have issues with errors and instability.
Scaling quantum computers is extremely challenging. Each added qubit adds to the complexity and the error rates. Experts estimate that it would take millions of logical bits to threaten Bitcoin. Current machines are off by factors of 10,000 to 100,000.
The Threat of Quantum That We Face Today
As of early 2026, the threats of quantum are still theoretical. No quantum computer is believed to be capable of breaking the cryptography of Bitcoin today. Even optimistic projections point to lengthy timelines before material risk sets in.
Researchers estimate that a breakdown of a Bitcoin public key for those trying to hack the information in one day would require roughly 13 million physical qubits. That number is some 100,000 times larger than current systems. But breaking keys within one hour would require even more advanced machines.
How Bitcoin’s Security Framework Works
Bitcoin security is based on two key aspects of cryptography. The first is the use of digital signatures for transaction authorisation. The second is with hashing algorithms for mining and address protection. Together, they ensure the network security from attacks.
Digital signatures are based upon elliptic curve cryptography. Hashing relies on SHA-256. These systems ensure the ownership, confirm transactions, and keep the network healthy. Quantum computing has different effects on these tools.
ECDSA, Schnorr and Signature Risks
Bitcoin initially implemented the use of ECDSA signatures, and currently supports Schnorr signatures. Both make use of elliptic curve mathematics. These systems develop public and private key pairs that are kept safe on classical computers.
Shor’s algorithm might eventually undermine elliptic curve systems. However, the attackers would still require very powerful quantum machines. Such machines are still a long way off.
SHA-256 and Mining Security
Bitcoin mining relies on folks who make SHA 256 hashes. This algorithm is used to process data into fixed-length outputs. The reversal of this process is still computationally infeasible.
Grover’s algorithm has the potential of diminishing the security of the SHA-256 from 256 bits to 128 bits. Even so, 128-bit security is extremely strong. Mining would not suddenly collapse and difficulty adjustments would keep things in balance.
What Quantum Computers Cannot Do
Quantum computers cannot alter the fixed supply of 21 million coins of Bitcoin. They cannot also bypass proof-of-work rules. Block validation still requires consensus and computer power.
The economic design of bitcoin is safe against quantum advances – but only for now Only components of cryptography might need to be upgraded in the future. This distinction has been misunderstood rather often.
Which Bitcoin Addresses Are Exposed?
Those addresses with public keys visible are only those that are the potential faces of the potential exposure. Most of these are legacy outputs from Pay-to-Public-Key. These addresses contain approximately 1.6M BTC.
However, most of these coins are dispersed across 30+22 UTXOs. Each holds around 50 BTC. Stealing them would take years or even decades of computation.
Why Modern Addresses Are More Secure
Modern Bitcoin addresses conceal public keys by hashes. These are P2PKH and P2SH formats. Only public keys are revealed when the money is spent.
This design restricts exposure windows. It also lowers risk due to future advances in quantum. Claims that 25% of Bitcoin is at risk often contain temporary and fixable risks.
Timeline and Feasibility of Quantum Attacks
Experts differentiate between short and long term attack scenarios. Short term attacks are aimed at public keys in the mempool. These would take less than 10 minutes to get results.
Such attacks are still unreal for decades. Long term attacks on dormant addresses may take years. Even then, costs would most likely outweigh rewards.
Market Impact Still Is Limited
Even under extreme situations, it is only around 10200 BTC that could suddenly get into the markets. This amount is not unlike ordinary trading volume. Therefore, market disruption would be kept to a minimum.
Other exposed coins could be migrated on a voluntary basis. Owners have time to transfer funds before some realistic threat is made. As a result, today price stability is unaffected.
Pros and Cons of Aggressive Bitcoin Changes
Some are suggesting early use of quantum-resistant cryptography. These changes might help in preparedness and confidence. They also offer easily accessible migration paths.
However, aggressive changes come with risks. New cryptography may have unknown flaws. Forced changes may be detrimental to decentralization, neutrality, and trust.
Expert Views on Bitcoin’s Quantum Future
CoinShares defines quantum risk as a long-term challenge. Benchmark and other analysts agree. They compare it to past cryptographic transition.
Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet pointed to existing hardware constraints. Each additional qubit added makes inaccuracy greater. Progress is still slow and uncertain.
Community Readiness and Research
Bitcoin developers are actively studying post quantum solutions. Research is on-going in universities and private companies. Awareness continues to go up in the ecosystem.
This is a way of reducing the shock later on. The development of Bitcoin is open, so it can be adapted slowly and carefully. That flexibility enhances long-term resiliency.
Final Thoughts
Quantum computing will alter technology in time. However, Bitcoin is not facing near-term danger from these advances. According to CoinShares, quantum-related threats are still decades away, exposure is still limited, and the impact on the market is still minimal. With proper planning, further research, and timely upgrades, Bitcoin can evolve safely. Therefore, the quantum threat is here, but it is by no means alarming.